Latest Numbers
We're just three days away from Super Tuesday. So I wanted to run down the latest polls out this weekend.
On the Republican side the picture is coming pretty quickly into focus: John McCain looks poised to crush Mitt Romney on Tuesday. If you look at the results of the Gallup daily tracking poll, virtually all of Giuliani's support nationally has gone to McCain, pushing him up into the mid-forties. Put that apparent break-out together with the fact that the Republican side is dominated by winner-take-all primaries, and it seems more than likely McCain will take Tuesday in a blow out. Probably enough to effectively end the Republican race. (For more, here's our look at the state by state breakdown as of yesterday.)
The Democratic side is far less clear, both because of the proportional delegate allotment and because of the volatility of the polls. The big story over the last ten days has been Barack Obama steady gains against Hillary Clinton nationwide. On January 20th, Obama was 20 points behind Clinton. On Feb. 1st, he was 3 points behind, both according to the Gallup daily tracking poll. But then today, in the same poll, Hillary popped back to a 7 point margin.
Any political or public opinion professional will tell you that it's very difficult to draw very much from a single day of a tracking poll. And weekend night's are notoriously unpredictable for getting good samples. But the only other publicly released tracking poll now being conducted, by Rasmussen, also showed a similar, albeit milder, Hillary blip in today's results -- Clinton 45%, Obama 37%, that's her up two points from the day before. The fact that this was the first night of polling after the Democratic debate provides some possible explanation for the change.
Obviously this is not quite a national primary on Tuesday, about half the country will be voting. But national polls mix in populations that are being actively contested with phone-banking and tv ad runs and those that aren't. And the state by state polls aren't coming in great enough numbers to give us a clear read of the trends, especially anything that might have happened in the last couple days. Tomorrow's tracking poll results and especially those released Monday will give us a better sense of whether today's numbers were just noise or the beginning of a new direction in the race.
Having gone over these numbers with Election Central's Eric Kleefeld, it seems clear that both Clinton and Obama will rack up a respectable number of state victories. But with the proportional allotment of delegates and the close margins, it doesn't seem like either is likely to come away with substantially more delegates than the other.
Assuming the final delegate numbers aren't too far apart (and by that i mean, say, closer than a 60%-40% split) a lot of the press coming out of Super Tuesday could be about who 'won' California, even though like the other states, it's proportional rather than winner take all.
What my gut tells me is that this all comes down to whether that blip in Hillary's margin from today turns out to be the first sign of something real. He's been moving so quickly in so many different states and nationwide that if his momentum continued through Tuesday I think he'd be set for a very good night. But perhaps that debate solidified Hillary's position and stopped him cold. I'll be very interested to see tomorrow's numbers.
To see our analysis of the outlook in each of the Super Tuesday states as of Jan. 31st, click here. For all the polls released yesterday and today, click here.
--Josh Marshall
Internship Deadline
The deadline for our Spring internship is just one week away. If you're interested (and remember, Friday pizza on TPM is one of the many perks) click here for more details on how to apply.
--Josh Marshall
TPMtv: Friday Clip Extravaganza
I'm trying to come to terms with the fact that I won't have Mitt to kick around much longer. So in today's episode we savor some of Mitt's finest moments of the weeks, as well as a couple choice Rudy ones ...
--Josh Marshall
The Horse's Mouth: Was bogus Tapper/ABC piece saying Bill wants to "slow" the economy really the fault of the blogosphere?
--David Kurtz
The Rudy Story
Over $50 million for a single delegate.
As the LA Times notes, that's the worst dollar for delegate record in American presidential history. The previous winner was John Connally who spent $11 million for a single delegate in 1980.
And at that rate Rudy would have needed $60 billion to win the nomination.
On the other hand, 9/11 did change everything.
--Josh Marshall
Hmmm ...
From Roll Call ...
The National Republican Congressional Committee said Friday that it has contacted the FBI about possible financial improprieties at the committee. Without providing details, the NRCC released a statement from Chairman Tom Cole (Okla.) that said:"As part of our ongoing efforts to institute and strengthen financial controls at the National Republican Congressional Committee, we learned earlier this week of irregularities in our financial audit process. Since these irregularities may include fraud, we have notified the appropriate law enforcement authorities. We are aggressively and thoroughly investigating the matter and, while we determine the details, we have terminated our relationship with a former employee who was engaged as an outside vendor."
--Josh Marshall
Facing the Truth (on Mittmentum)
As I told a Republican friend this morning, it is with some regret and chagrin that I am forced to recognize that the only serious opposition to McCain within Republican circles appears to be from people with active personality disorders (admittedly a non-trivial number of people, but a reality nonetheless). The officeholders seem more than ready to sign on. Even the professional activists of the Norquist variety are ready to do business, albeit with some grumbling and demand to be courted. I'm waiting to see what the Dobsonites have to say.
--Josh Marshall
Tri-State Area
SurveyUSA has new polls out in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut. Short take, Hillary takes NY and NJ while Obama has a slight edge (within the margin of error) in Connecticut.
New York -- Clinton 54%, Obama 38%
New Jersey -- Clinton 51%, Obama 39%
Connecticut -- Clinton 44%, Obama 48%
--Josh Marshall
Conyers Has Our Back?
You may remember a few weeks back we told you how the Justice Department had banned TPM from its press list and was coming up with a bunch of ridiculous reasons why we couldn't be reinstated. Apparently one was a DOJ budget shortfall that meant they couldn't afford keep us on their email list. (Talk about budget cuts!) Now Chairman Conyers (D-MI) is asking the DOJ if this isn't another example of the politicization of the Department.
(In the background, the issue here seems to be that the new head of the DOJ's Public Affairs office got his nose bent out of shape when we reported on a string of his knowing and intentional misstatements of fact. Our banning followed soon after.)
--Josh Marshall
Today's Must Read
The Senate struck a deal last night on how to proceed on the new FISA legislation. The votes are on Monday, and it looks like two of the key* amendments -- including Dodd/Feingold, which would strip telecom immunity from the bill--will get up or down majority votes.
*Ed. Note: The post originally stated that all amendments would be based on majority vote. In fact, some of the amendments will require 60-vote minimums. Here's the rundown on which thresholds apply.
--David Kurtz
Hang In There
We are still experiencing some technical difficulties following yesterday's relaunch of the TPM sites.
We're working on it. Thanks to those readers who have identified bugs for us.
Hope to have the remaining kinks ironed out soon and look forward to introducing you to the new site features.
--David Kurtz
Money Woes
Need proof that it's tough running for President as a Republican this year?
Mitt Romney had to pony up $18 million of his own money for his campaign in the fourth quarter alone, which was two-thirds of the total amount he managed to raise.
To keep his poorly financed campaign afloat, John McCain had to take out a $3 million loan and secure it in part with a life insurance policy on himself.
And those are the top GOP candidates.
--David Kurtz
The Old McCain
I was wondering when this would come up. As a lot of us remember, John McCain was very close to leaving the Republican party in 2001 and becoming either a Democrat or, much more likely, an independent a la Jim Jeffords who would caucus with the Democrats. The Hill gives the story another shake and talks to folks like Daschle and others who were in on the negotiations.
--Josh Marshall
Quick Sum Up
Some very quick thoughts. The debate was a surprisingly substantive discussion of a number of issues that actually resonate in people's lives. Which means it wasn't really anything like a political debate. I thought both candidates had a good debate. For the first half and maybe a little more, I thought Clinton was the more commanding presence, though not overwhelmingly. Then in the second half things changed, the balance changed. The key seemed to be Iraq. No hard punches were thrown. And I thought Clinton did well. She just had a set of facts that weren't as good as his to deal with. And even though it was gently, he kept hitting on this point of the authorization of the war. And it was very effective. There was just no really good answer for Clinton, though as I've said before many times I actually think there are decent arguments justifying the vote as not simply a vote for war.
In the context of the race, I think this helped Obama because it put the two of them on the same level, the same stature level. As I've said before, Obama in general has not been a good debater. But this was a good one for him. Clinton on the other hand I think helped herself by getting the focus back on her, as opposed to her husband. Not that there's anything wrong with Bill. But this is her election. I guess on points I'd give this to Obama because of the exchanges on Iraq, but it was a very close call. And both had a good debate.
--Josh Marshall
Why's This Debate in Hollywood Debate Blogging
Obama kicks it off.
8:08 PM ... What GOP operative masterminded holding this debate at the Kodak theatre with a bunch of movie stars in the audience?
8:12 PM ... The forces of niceness begin in the ascendent.
8:13 PM ... Excellent. Close up of the lame dude from The Office.
8:14 PM ... By the way, I'll be on TV talking with Olbermann after the debate, starting at about 10 PM on MSNBC. Actually I am here blogging at the moment at the palatial MSNBC studios manse as I speak.
8:21 PM ... Thus far the debate is eerily substantive. I expect Wolf to pounce.
8:26 PM ... It's a cutting irony for Edwards that he dropped out of the race just before being universally acclaimed a saint of the Democratic party.
8:47 PM ... Obama resists being tarred with the 'humane' hot-button codeword.
8:48 PM ... How big is the fine? And are we sure all these illegals are going to be able to pay it? Just curious.
8:53 PM ... Apparently while I stepped out for one minute I missed Wolf finally goading the candidates on to a fight.
8:55 PM ... It's always interesting to try to infer the strategic decisions from the candidates attitudes and statements at the debate. In this case it seems like both sides feel like they want to keep with the trajectory and plan they're on and don't want to rile things up to risk some shuffling of the cards that could change things. That clearly seems the case with Obama, though this is pretty much always his debating style. I wonder if Hillary feels boxed in by the perceived negative reaction to the more aggressive approach she and Bill were using between Nevada and South Carolina, and thus not in a position to take a more aggressive stance.
9:03 PM ... Obligatory Politico ad.
9:04 PM ... Hillary's on a tear here. It makes me think how much better she is making her case than Bill is making it for her. Not that she matches him in inherent retail political skills. But the president has to be the president. She has to make her own case. Be her own person.
9:08 PM ... I'm struck again by the political genius of having this debate before an audience of movie stars.
9:10 PM ... Well delivered answer from Obama on the change/bring new voters issue.
9:11 PM ... Clinton gets the dynasty question.
9:11 - 9:34 PM ... Miscellaneous Iraq and Iran stuff that happened while I was offline.
9:35 PM ... I give Hillary several points for the multiple Wolf smackdowns.
9:40 PM ... I'm marvelling at Wolf's skill at what I guess you'd call the attempted smackdown assist. Hillary, didn't Barack just hit you over the head with a bat and smack you around like ... well, like? Aren't you saying that you were a damned fool for supporting President Bush? Is that your position?
9:43 PM ... What's the deal with CNN running commercials over the debate? Aren't they involved in the scheduling on this thing?
9:46 PM ... Watching Chelsea, I now get it that Bill has been taken to an undisclosed location.
9:49 PM ... "I have to agree with everything Barack just said."
--Josh Marshall
Why the Ban?
House Judiciary Chairman John Conyers (D-MI) asks Attorney General Michael Mukasey why the Justice Department has dropped TPMmuckraker from its press release distribution list and refuses reinstatement.
--David Kurtz
ABC and Jake Tapper dig in and defend much-maligned piece saying Bill Clinton wants to slow economy.
--David Kurtz
Thanks For Your Patience
As Josh mentioned earlier, we re-launched all the TPM sites today, with some new and improved features on the front-end and the back-end. And, as with most re-launches, it wasn't without its glitches. We think we've got the major kinks ironed out. But for those of you who were having trouble with the sites this afternoon, thanks for hanging in there.
--David Kurtz
Hottest Ticket in Town
CNN just reporting that tickets to tonight's L.A. debate between Hillary and Obama are going for upwards of $1,000 apiece.
--David Kurtz
Debate Blogging
In case you don't know, the Dems California debate is running on CNN tonight at 8:00 PM Eastern. And with only two left in the race and Super Tuesday less than a week away, it could be the pivotal debate of the campaign. We'll be here, of course, live-blogging.
--Josh Marshall
6 points, 24 points, give or take
Yesterday Rasmussen reported a 6 point spread between Hillary and Obama in Massachusetts. Now SurveyUSA has just published a poll giving a 24 point spread.
SurveyUSA did have the spread at 37 on January 25th. So they have Obama moving quickly.
But it's still like they're surveying two completely different races.
--Josh Marshall
The Ultimate Victim
For those of you not familiar with the rarefied and delicate phenomenon of Manhattan Republicanism, the Manhattan Institute is a neoconish think tank ('neocon' in, I would say, the pre-Iraq War sense of the word which meant domestic policy as much as gonzo foreign interventionism) that publishes City Journal, sort of the highbrow outlet of the local Rudy cult. So as you can imagine, these are pretty glum days for the folks who run the place.
Well, this afternoon AH sent over this new piece from City Journal, "Requiem for Rudy: Giuliani's exit removes the most visible representative of September 11."
As long as the topic is the Islamofascist War Against Us (IWAU) (TM), I guess it's sort of like There's is no 9/11 but 9/11 and Rudy is its messenger ... a little Koranic humor there.
In any case, at the end of the piece author Paul Beston has this beautiful sentiment ...
Perhaps Giuliani should blame Bush for his campaign’s demise. If Bush had not been so successful in preventing another domestic terrorist attack, Giuliani’s relevance to voters would be painfully obvious, and his deviations from party orthodoxy less compelling. Instead, he and Bush, the two public figures most associated with September 11, will watch from the sidelines as America turns the page.
So there you have it. If only the last six-plus years of American history had been a real world equivalent of Rudy's verbal tick -- 9/11 9/11 9/11 -- we could be blessed with the glory of a Rudy presidency. In the end, terrorism let Rudy down.
--Josh Marshall
TPMtv: Campaign 2008 Roundup #11
Just a few days to Super Tuesday and we round up how it looks in both races, as well as bring you highlights of last night's Mitt-McCain grudge match ...
Watch this episode on YouTube.
--Josh Marshall
Prepare For Liftoff
As you can see we're rolling out a new version of the site today. We started the switchover at about 10:30 this morning. And as is often the case with these relaunches there will likely be a few bumps along the way. So bear with us. On the main TPM site, the changes you'll see on the front end will be relatively limited. The main thing you'll see is the 'log in' box near the top of the site -- which I'll say more about shortly. This is the last stage of the redesign of our network that we've been rolling out in stages over the last six months.
As you've seen, with the new site design we rolled out in mid-2007, we've been integrating our small network of sites, giving them each a common design theme among other changes to recognize the fact that TPM, TPMmuckraker, TPM Election Central, TPMCafe and TPM Horses Mouth function editorially as an integrated network of sites.
Today changes will bring TPMCafe in under the new design. And you'll now be able to comment and blog using one log in across all the TPM sites. So if you're tpmfreak59 at TPMCafe you can now comment on all the TPM sites with that log in. In addition to new profiles reader can set up we think this will enhance the quality of the discussions at our sites in a number of ways.
As I said, I'll be updating you on all the new details shortly. This is just a heads up about what's coming. Please bear with us with any bumps through the day. And of course if you have questions, let us know.
--Josh Marshall
Another Point on Bill
One point that should not go unmentioned is that what former President Clinton is described as doing in that Times article is little different from what the first President Bush has done in his post-presidency. And his son is the president. So if it would be a problem with Bill, and I think it would be, it unquestionably is already a problem with the current president's dad. And no one has seemed to much bother about it.
Late Update: I dashed this post off quickly. But after receiving a number of emails to this effect, I have to agree that the relationship between a father and son is simply not comparable to that between spouses. So while it's ridiculous that Bush Sr.'s buckraking hasn't drawn more attention, if Bill Clinton were to do this out of the White House the two would simply not be on the same par. Not even close.
--Josh Marshall
Those Two Clinton Stories
Today brings two new stories potentially damaging to the Clinton campaign -- one from ABC supposedly showing that when she served on the board of Walmart in the late 80s and early 90s she did nothing to push back against the companies aggressively anti-union policies. The second comes from the Times and shows Bill Clinton mixing fundraising for his foundation with allowing international tycoons trade on his friendship to secure international mining concessions in Kazakhstan.
The first story seems mainly old news. We knew Hillary served on the Walmart board. The company is notoriously anti-union. I think it basically goes without saying that she wasn't going to be pushing for a more union-friendly company policy, certainly not at a public board meeting, or else she wouldn't have stayed on the board for more than five minutes. The story points out that she did push for more representation of women in the higher ranks of the company and also for more green policies -- and on both counts had she at least some success.
But I remember being at a talk given by SEIU's Andy Stern about how Walmart was willing to be flexible on a whole range of issues one might see as progressive, or at least was open to discussions, but that labor organizing was just in an entirely separate category. Walmart might be gay-friendly, completely green and whatever else but the top execs simply would not and could not imagine a different line on labor.
Now, whether or not Hillary should have ever gone on the Walmart board (remember this was an Arkansas-based company) is a very reasonable question. And I'm not saying the piece isn't good journalism. I'm just saying I don't think this tells us anything more than we did know or should have known based on the fact that she served on the board.
The Bill Clinton story in the Times is another story. I won't try to characterize what the story describes. You should just read it. As far as I know, Bill Clinton says he'd still keep raising money for the foundation even while Hillary was president. And there's no question the foundation does a lot of good works with the money, whatever the nature of the fundraising or the money's origins. But Bill's nuts if he thinks he'll be able to keep raising money like this if Hillary's president. It's not even a close call.
--Josh Marshall
Down to the Wire
New Rasmussen poll, Obama pulls to within three points of Hillary in California.
Thanks to TPM Reader JS for the tip.
--Josh Marshall
The Layoff Cackle
Here was one of the weir moments in the debate where John McCain made a crack about job layoffs at Mitt's companies. And you hear Mitt in the background cackling. Obviously, meant to push back in some sense at the jab, but had the weird effect of having Romney cracking up -- Monty Burns style -- about people he downsized ...
--Josh Marshall
Open Mic
So what did you think? Did Mitt get any traction? Or is the McCain train leaving the station?
--Josh Marshall
Hard To Be A Mitt Fan Debate Blogging
8:51 PM ... Maybe I'm underestimating how much viewers will pick up McCain's ducking these questions or fibbing on stuff like the Bush tax cuts. But Romney seems simply unwilling to strike at McCain in any effective way. Am I missing something? Does he know it's over? Because Rush and the rest of them are already wimping out and trying to buy tickets on the McCain bandwagon?
9:00 PM ... Leave it to Mitt Romney to stumble over his ability to say "no". Mitt seriously seems not to comprehend the first elements of political rhetoric. Mitt gets a softball: Is McCain lying when he says you supported Iraq time tables (when in fact he was lying)? Then he stumbles over "unequivocally". And then says a bunch of other nonsense. He sort of recovered at the end. But man, it was pitiful.
9:04 PM ... A moment of spark from Mitt, but then it fades.
9:05 PM ... God, Mitt should be able to knock McCain on his heels on this one. He insists that Romney said X and the quote doesn't say X. Can Mitt stay focused?
9:23 PM ... Mitt's actually sucking toward the end ... Alas, now he's getting himself confused with his checkers and chess analogy. So sad to watch.
--Josh Marshall
Mitt Put Up Or Shut Up Debate Blogging
We're watching live at the Reagan shrine. Each candidate is bowing before Nancy Reagan. Not that there's anything wrong with that.
8:03 PM ... Anderson Cooper is totally getting into the Reagan hagiography here. I feel like pulling someone aside and saying, Hey, you know what, I was alive back when Reagan was president. Lemme tell you what it was like ... But then again I'm only 38 so I guess we all were. Oh well.
8:05 PM ... Man, McCain's cash payment to Cooper really paid off with Cooper's utter smackdown of Romney like five times in the first question. Hmmm. McCain's not doing well either.
8:08 PM ... Debates are harder to follow since grammar and syntax dropped out of the race.
8:09 PM ... Okay, I think the story of the night is that the sound system is so bad that the candidates can't even hear each other.
8:13 PM ... Getting the sense that McCain feels liberated by the fact that he's mopping up delegates with Mitt's behind.
8:17 PM ... That was an interesting exchange between McCain and Romney. McCain smacked him around; but then Romney came back and seemed to completely demolish his arguments with factual rebuttals. McCain's point about Mitt's Lt. Gov was I think just plain wrong. But McCain had better delivery for his fibs than Mitt did for his facts. Curious how people will view that.
8:22 PM ... I've just requested that a message be sent to Mitt's earpiece requesting more fighting.
8:26 PM ... I think Mitt must have kicked McCain's butt with that global warming answer, only I couldn't figure out what he was trying to say.
8:29 PM ... Anderson: Shut up, Ron Paul! You've had your thirty seconds!
8:30 PM ... Aphasia is working for Huckabee.
8:39 PM ... It too bad for Mitt that he sucks so much. Here the LA Times reporter hits McCain on the fact he opposed the Bush tax cuts and did so for a rational reason -- they were big giveaways for the rich. Remember, this was when McCain was considering becoming a Democrat. Mitt comes back at this but he gets sidetracked on talking about entitlements. Sigh.
8:43 PM ... First, let me note that this 'get to the end of the line' metaphor really needs to be outlawed. More importantly, Mitt Romney, really doesn't know how to go on the attack. He keeps getting these questions where McCain is deeply at odds with most Republicans. He lightly touches on the question and then gets distracted talking about some policy mumbojumbo.
8:46 PM ... Okay, McCain is ducking this 'would you vote for your own bill' question. Is Romney too stupid to hit him on this? The answer seems to be yes.
--Josh Marshall
Chicken
I don't want to kick Rudy around any more. But the funny thing about Rudy is that while he ran on 'staying on offense' against Islamic bad guys, his whole race was defined by running away from fights. We've talked a lot about his alleged 'strategy' of ignoring the early races and focusing all his energy on Florida which would launch him to glory on Super Tuesday. And it's an open secret that this 'strategy' was really more a work-in-progress rationalization for his collapse of support in the early states. Rudy, I believe, outspent everyone in New Hampshire. And he campaigned there a lot.
But it's more than that. If you look closely, every time it didn't look like it was going to be an easy victory in a state, Rudy's campaign packed up and left. Or not quite packed up, but basically backed out, made an occasional visit, said it'd be nice to win but that it wasn't really necessary. It was somewhat the case in Iowa, totally the case in New Hampshire and the same in South Carolina too. I think it was the same basically in Michigan, though I'm not as familiar with the particulars there.
Whatever else you can say about Mitt Romney, he decided to make a stand Michigan, realizing that he had to get a victory on the board to credibly go on.
With Rudy, he just finally ran out of places to run.
Piling on Update: The post-mortem the Times ran last night was hilariously devastating. But this piece from the Guardian ain't bad either (note the reference to the "old Clinton/Carter approach") ...
The New Year's Eve memo that landed in the inboxes of Rudy Giuliani's campaign team was buoyant. Written by Brent Seaborn, one of the former New York mayor's key strategists, it rejected "the old Clinton/Carter approach" of securing the first states to vote in the primary season in favour of concentrating on Florida and Super Tuesday."History," Seaborn confidently declared, "will prove us right."
In truth, history will show the unconventional, and ultimately catastrophic, strategy to be one of the biggest miscalculations in US campaign history - and one that has brought Giuliani's ambitions to be the 44th US president to a humiliating end.
The scale of Giuliani's collapse from his 20-point lead over his nearest rival last summer to third place in yesterday's Florida primary was evident at the beginning of the week.
He stopped off at various airfields round Florida for rallies that had long been organised by his staff, intended to be the high point of his campaign, the culmination of months of organisation. But instead of being mobbed by supporters, Giuliani struggled to attract more than 100 supporters at each stop.
At Fort Lauderdale, he cut short his speech, all the gusto and exuberance with which he launched his campaign in 2006 gone, and departed to kill time in a nearby hangar.
And, for the first time, his aides began talking about the campaign in the past tense. It was over, and they knew it.
--Josh Marshall
Haven't heard myself but we've heard from a slew of readers who tell us that on his show today Sean Hannity was majorly getting religion on John McCain. Did you hear it?
--Josh Marshall
A Campaign Video Retrospective
Elizabeth Edwards: wife, mother, lawyer, cancer survivor, and media critic.
--David Kurtz
What do you Think?
What do you think? Assuming he doesn't quickly endorse one candidate or the other, who does Edwards' exit help? There are some number crunching arguments that it helps Hillary -- with the three candidates to split delegates in states where they're alloted by district, the highest vote getter gets marginally fewer delegates than with two candidates. Yet another point to consider, is that with Edwards in there was a decent chance you could come into the convention with Hillary with most delegates but not enough to secure the nomination. Then there are the polls. A recent LATimes poll found that Edwards supporters basically split between the two, with a slight margin for Hillary. At the same time there's no mistaking that the target of most of Edwards' campaign has been Hillary, not Obama, if only because she was the frontrunner. And the whole Democratic terrain is so volatile right now that I doubt any mechanistic read on this question will yield the right answer. What do you think? Who does it help?
--Josh Marshall
TPMtv: Hope for Mitt?
With John McCain's pretty solid victory over Mitt Romney last night in Florida, Mitt's going to have to rely on a nationwide chorus of 'wingers to knock McCain around enough to allow Mitt to get back into contention. In today's episode of TPMtv, we survey the possibilities ...
Watch this episode on YouTube.
--Josh Marshall
That Gallup Poll
You've probably seen the Gallup poll out today that shows a mere 6 points separating Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama nationwide. More striking to me than the number though is the trendline. Here's the graph from the daily samples Gallup is now doing ...
As you can see, ten days ago, Hillary had a 20 point margin. Then starting about a week ago, Barack's been edging up and she's been edging down a little less than a point a day. What's striking to me about this is the continuing volatility even after Obama's break out in Iowa. Usually the underdog/insurgent candidate (which Obama mainly is, but not so much on the money side) has a big run up in support after an early win. But once you have that, what's the next boffo news story that drives up your numbers again? Particularly after you've fallen back? You need some major development to reshuffle the deck. And it seemed to happen around the 20th of the month.
--Josh Marshall
We Shed a Tear for Thee, Rudy G.
It's official.
Rudy is telling people now that he's out of the race.
He is to endorse John McCain at 6 p.m. ET.
--David Kurtz
Rep. Tom Davis (R-VA) Retiring
Careful. If you blink, you might miss another GOP congressman announcing plans to retire.
Yesterday it was Reps. Ron Lewis (R-KY) and Kenny Hulshof (R-MO). (Hulshof is not retiring per se, but running for governor.)
Today, it's Rep. Tom Davis (R-VA), who is expected to announce this afternoon that he is not running for re-election.
Davis' departure brings to 28 the number of GOP retirements in advance of this year's election.
--David Kurtz
Endorsement Watch
It's been quite a dry spell for Hillary on the endorsement front since Iowa. But she just picked up Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA).
Late Update: A few readers have written in to dispute that Hillary's had a dry spell and have provided lists of various minor officeholders who've endorsed her over the course of this last month. Rep. Waters (D-CA) endorsement yesterday was significant. But there's no ignoring the fact that Obama has put up a series of high-profile endorsements in January even during the period when she's been in the ascendent. Govs. Napolitano and Sebelius. Sens. Kennedy, Kerry, Leahy, Johnson, Ben Nelson, McCaskill, etc.
Later Update: I've just found out that Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL) last night made official the endorsement of Hillary that had been expected for several days. Same overall picture applies though. Barack's been way out ahead in endorsements all month.
--Josh Marshall
Ends Justify the Means
This may be the most revealing bit of Michael Mukasey's testimony today: Whether waterboarding is torture, the attorney general says, requires a balancing test of the costs v. the benefits.
So there you have it. In the view of the Justice Department, there is no categorical prohibition against the torture of detainees, even under the Detainee Treatment Act.
Waterboarding has become proxy for a whole host of torture methods that traditionally would be considered torture, and so the balancing test set out by the attorney general is not limited to waterboarding.
Late Update: Sen. Durbin followed up on this line of questioning. Mukasey basically put Congress on notice that they have to outlaw waterboarding or quit asking questions about it.
--David Kurtz
The Race is On
Top Edwards adviser Joe Trippi tells TPM Election Central that Hillary and Obama are "banging down the doors" for Edwards' endorsement.
--David Kurtz
Bob Ball, Dead at 93
You probably don't know his name. And you probably won't see any news of his passing outside of the obit section. But Bob Ball, who died last night at the age of 93, probably played a greater role in expanding and defending Social Security than anyone in the second half of the 20th century.
Ball became a Field Assistant in the Social Security Board's New Jersey field office in 1939. He became Assistant Director of the Bureau of Old Age and Survivors Insurance in 1949. Later he became Deputy Director and then Acting Director. In 1962, President Kennedy appointed Ball a Commissioner of Social Security, where he remained until 1973.
Probably most significant was Ball's advocacy of Social Security and social insurance more generally after his retirement. He was a key member of the Greenspan Commission which made the program solvent well into the middle of the 21st century. And he was around as a key behind the scenes player as recently as President Bush's failed 2005 effort to phase out Social Security and replace it with a system of private accounts.
--Josh Marshall
Wheeling and Dealing
I don't want this to got lost in the flurry of news this morning. But last night the Senate passed by voice vote a 15-day extension of the Protect America Act--the adjunct to FISA that was hastily passed last summer. It was set to expire tomorrow. Earlier in the day, the House passed the same extension, also by voice vote.
This morning, on the Senate floor, Sen. Reid said that a deal is in the works for how the new FISA bill and its key feature--telecom immunity--will be handled. Details to come later.
Late Update: Sen. Feingold hits the nail on the head.
--David Kurtz
See No Evil?
Will DOJ's investigation into the destruction of the CIA torture tapes include a look at whether criminal conduct was depicted on the tapes?
Mukasey won't rule it out. But those looking for a bold "we'll get to the bottom of this no matter what it takes or where it takes us" declaration from the attorney general will be disappointed.
--David Kurtz
Mittstasis
If Mitt Romney's supporters are looking to him to buck them up in his efforts to derail the John McCain nomination train, I'm not sure he's coming through for them in the TV appearance we just posted below. Especially from someone as reflexively and plastically cheery, Mitt was awfully subdued. It's sort of like his speech last night in which even the people standing behind him (and remember, that's not audience, those people are placed there to add looks of excitement and enthusiasm). Everybody up there looked like they'd just gotten three swift punches to the gut, which I guess they had.
--Josh Marshall
Today's Must Read
Attorney General Michael Mukasey is testifying before the Senate Judiciary Committee this morning.
He is trying once again to thread the needle on waterboarding.
Paul Kiel will having running updates on the hearing at TPMmuckraker.
--David Kurtz
The Little Engine That Could
What happened to Mitt's sunny optimism? He isn't sounding especially gung-ho the morning after:
--David Kurtz
No Endorsement Yet
Edwards adviser tells TPM Election Central that John Edwards is not endorsing anyone "for the moment."
--David Kurtz
Edwards Thread
We've got a John Edwards dropping out discussion thread up over at TPMCafe.
What's the impact? Who benefits most? Where do his issues go from here?
--David Kurtz
Spinning Florida
For the Democrats, the big question tonight was how the press would play Hillary Clinton's 'win' in Florida, or how successfully she could spin the result to count as a landslide victory on a par with Obama's big win in South Carolina. The final number seems to be Hillary 50%, Obama 33%, Edwards 14% which, in numerical terms, is a trouncing, even it doesn't match the spread in South Carolina.
Just judging from the cable news we watched this evening and how the major newspapers are playing it on their websites, it doesn't look like they get much of a pop. Most of the website front pages of the newspapers I'm looking at either don't mention the Democratic result out of Florida or put it under the fold with some conspicuous notation that the 'win' had not delegates. Nor, at least in the headlines I'm seeing, does there seem to be any real mention of the margin of her win, which was substantial. For the record I'm looking at the Boston Globe, New York Times, WaPo, USAToday, Dallas Morning News, LATimes, Stl. Post-Dispatch and others. The standard seems to be some form of the Post-Dispatch's small related item "Clinton wins primary but no delegates." In the Post, there's a snarky piece by Dana Milbank: "Much Ado About No Delegates: The only piece missing from Sen. Hillary Clinton's Florida victory party Tuesday night was a victory." Ouch. CNN has a small related headline: "Clinton trumpets win with no delegates at stake."
Just in terms of managing the news cycle I think what the Clinton folks would have been looking for are two things -- big pictures of Hillary smiling, preferably above the fold, thus suggesting victory and some mention of her margin. But I don't see either anywhere.
Perhaps the print front pages will play this differently. But on balance I suspect they didn't get as much juice out of this as they wanted or expected.
--Josh Marshall
All the Spouses Do It
Her apology was hedged and conditioned, but Hillary seemed to go out of her way tonight in an interview on CNN to try to address the damage done by her South Carolina campaign:
--David Kurtz
Mittmentum Killer
McCain's victory speech:
By the way, think Charlie Crist might have some sway in a McCain Administration?
--David Kurtz
911911911, Set to the Blue Danube
Missed Rudy's concession speech? You're in luck.
--Josh Marshall
He Didn't Win Conservatives
At TPM HQ tonight, we've mainly been following the action on MSNBC. And the hosts I think have been saying that McCain basically won across the board. I'm not saying they said anything incorrect. But I thought they said that Rudy had won conservatives.
But Kevin Drum actually has some numbers up. And that's not what happened. Among self-identified 'conservatives' Romney actually beat McCain 37% to 27%. And they made up 62% of the Republican voters. The key was that McCain nearly doubled Romney among the 39% of Republicans who called themselvs moderates or liberals.
--Josh Marshall
ABC Says They Have It
ABC says they've got it confirmed that Rudy drops out tomorrow and endorses McCain.
Late Update: New York Times has up their Rudy post-mortem, "For Giuliani, a Dizzying Free-Fall."
Later Update: Ed Koch craps on the wreckage of Rudy's campaign.
--Josh Marshall
Broke-Mortem
Tom Brokaw just had a little riff when he answered Chris Matthews' question about what happened to the campaign of "America's Mayor". Brokaw proceeded to explain that basically Rudy had too much baggage, no one likes him and the more he campaigned the worse it got for him.
--Josh Marshall
Sh-tmentum
I still believe in Mitt's dream. But man, that was one really dejected group of people standing behind him. They couldn't even manage to seem excited as Mitt talked aimlessly about all the conservative claptrap he doesn't really believe in.
There was actually a guy up there in the upper right hand corner that looked like he might have been sedated.
--Josh Marshall
Buck Up Ben
This is sort of background editorial info. But as much as some of you might enjoy Rudy Giuliani's abject and utter humiliation in Florida tonight, it's not fun and games for everyone.
Take Ben Craw, Editor/Producer of TPMtv. Rudy's 
been a goldmine for his efforts. First you've got the famous Rudy 9/11-off, the Giggliani reel, Rudy explaining how he was a 9/11 recovery worker, and today's Rudenfreude reel.
As you can see, Rudy's titanic campaign has made Ben's job significantly easier. And the apparently soon-to-come departure of Rudy from the race seems certain to mean a run of hard times, with Ben scanning the cable shows for material as choice as Rudy provided for many months.
So, drop Ben a line. Tell him to buck up. Tell him there's still hope.
--Josh Marshall
Calling It for Rudy
I think TPM Reader AF has it right. At this point, even with 35% of the precincts reporting, we can declare this one for Rudy. Rudy now has 16% of the vote. And Ron Paul has only 3%. So it's basically impossible for Ron Paul to come back and keep up his winning streak over Rudy Giuliani.
--Josh Marshall
Looking on the Bright Side
The early rumble out of Florida doesn't look too promising for Mittmentum. But assuming McCain does pull this off tonight and establishes himself as the official GOP frontrunner (TM) there are some small saving graces.
First is the mini-GOP civil war as the right-wing establishment elites go after McCain with attack ads like this one being rolled out now by David Bossie's Citizens United. Then there's the spate of seizures from folks like Rush Limbaugh as they either go insane or try to eat their words and cozy up to McCain. Then we'll have McCain trying to suck up to the Rush types. So it's not all a loss.
One thing though, that has sort of congealed in my mind as I've watched the race moving over the last couple weeks. John McCain has picked up a number of endorsements recently from Republican officeholders. And I think that's kind of the key. McCain doesn't do badly at all with Republican officeholders, and that means, significantly, people who look forward to t